Edited Transcript of IPO-RVEY.N earnings conference call or presentation 12-Feb-20 12:00pm GMT

Then let’s move on and look at the financials. Let’s start with Q4. In Q4, our games revenue grew 2.4% year-on-year and was EUR 66.7 million. Brand licensing revenue declined 34.4% year-on-year and was EUR 4.9 million. Due to the decline in brand licensing, revenues in the group level declined 1.4% year-on-year, landing at EUR 71.6 million.

Decline in brand licensing was due to lower revenues from Angry Birds Movie 2 and lower consumer product sales. It’s good to note that the competition was quite intense in the animated movie business this year as well as in the character licensing business, and several big movies opened all more or less within 2 months during the summer.

Growth in games business was mostly attributed to strong launch of Angry Birds Dream Blast. Sugar Blast contributed modestly during Q4. And the revenues of Angry Birds 2 stabilized quarter-on-quarter, and thus contribution to games revenue was on the same level as in the previous quarter.

Then moving on to profitability in Q4. That was impacted by increased investments in U.S. acquisition as well as by lower revenues from brand licensing, both from the consumer products sales and the movie, as just explained. The group adjusted operating profit was EUR 0.2 million, and adjusted operating profit margin was 0.3%. Games adjusted operating profit was EUR 4.5 million, and brand licensings was EUR 0.3 million. Other segment includes Hatch and Rovio Group functions. The expenses there stayed quite stable year-on-year.

And then let’s take a look at the full year figures. The group full year revenue was EUR 289.1 million. This represents 2.8% growth year-on-year. Games revenue grew 5.7% to EUR 264.8 million, and the brand licensing declined 21.1% to EUR 24.3 million. As discussed earlier, games growth was mainly driven by the successful launch of Angry Birds Dream Blast, and brand licensing revenue decline was due to less revenues from the consumer products sales and the movie.

Group adjusted operating profit was EUR 18.3 million, and the adjusted operating profit margin, 6.3%. As planned, we invested more in user acquisition in 2019 than in 2018, and thus, games adjusted operating profit declined to EUR 31.3 million. Brand licensing adjusted operating profit declined to EUR 4.6 million due to lower revenues. Other segment adjusted operating profit decline was due to higher go-to-market expenses in Hatch Entertainment. The adjusted operating profit for the full year for the other segment was minus EUR 17.6 million.

And now over to René for some more details.

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René Lindell, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CFO [3]

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Thank you, Kati, and hello to everyone on the call from my behalf.

Let’s continue to look at the gross bookings for our top 5 games and the rest of the games portfolio. The total games gross bookings grew to EUR 67 million in Q4 and actually was the highest gross bookings in Rovio’s history on a quarterly level, the best of the year and also beating the last record of 4Q ’18. Angry Birds 2, Rovio’s largest game and the flagship of the Angry Birds franchise, had stable bookings and over 2 consecutive quarters. This stabilization of revenue shows both resilience of the brand and the ability to acquire users organically even though we had a quite low user acquisition investment for that game. As well, it shows the good live operations of the team.

Angry Birds Dream Blast reached another record bookings and grew to EUR 18.8 million, and this growth was very much fueled by significant user acquisition investments, which was also seen, of course, in the group’s profit margin for that quarter. Angry Birds Friends and Match saw some decline in bookings in line with our expectations. Angry Birds Pop demonstrated good resilience and has been stable also in 2 consecutive quarters.

Sugar Blast, which is our newest game release in September, is a spin-off from the successful Angry Birds Dream Blast game and was brought to the market very fast and with a very short soft launch period. That game brought EUR 2.2 million of incremental revenues in Q4, and we are continuing to optimize and learn, and in that game, how to scale it up and market the game for a different audience and with a new IP.

Let’s also look at the gross bookings from a game life cycle viewpoint. During the year, we brought 2 new growth games. And during the year, those 2 games grew to be 1/3 — about 1/3 of our total games bookings in the last quarter. The 4 earn games in black on the page shows that they had pretty similar gross bookings for Q3 and Q4. And this shows also the resilience and earning power of the Angry Birds franchise. As even with smaller and also 0 UA for some of these titles, these games kept on stacking bookings. The catalog games, which are the older group of not actively maintained titles and which we do expect to slowly decline over time, were actually stable in Q4.

Let’s move on to user acquisition. The UA investments in the last quarter amounted to EUR 27.5 million, which equals 41.3% of games revenues. And that’s a very large quarter for UA, pretty similar in the — as in Q3. And this was driven by the grow category games as well as a smaller investment in Angry Birds 2. So in the second half of the year, we had a very large UA increase, driven by the continuation of opportunity to drive growth that we saw during the movie launch window in Q3. However, after analyzing these cohorts at the end of the year, we noticed that the additional UA spend over base spend did not have the same payback requirements — or payback as our requirements. And that meant that, overall, we started to reduce the UA spend at the end of the year. This also means that we start the first quarter in 2020 at a much lower rate than we ended the last year.

At the moment, we are closer to around 20% of games revenue than 40%. And naturally, due to the way these costs behave in the P&L, this also has an immediate, significant profit impact in the first quarter. Naturally, we will increase UA spend during the year if we see the opportunity in the market and our games performance with the new features and updates are enabling us to spend more and, of course, if we — if and when we launch new games. That’s a significant impact on the UA for that launch window.

Let’s also look at UA split per games life cycle category. At the beginning of the year, the split was equally split between the grow and earn games, where earn is basically Angry Birds 2. And during the year, as we brought 2 new games which were in launch mode, they took over almost 80% of the total spend. And this means also that the grow games in 2019 were at negative margin, while the earn games were earning at increasingly profit — higher margin.

Moving on to cash flow. Operating cash flow in 4Q ’19 was positive EUR 3.1 million. The big difference to last year’s Q4 was mainly due to a lower level of profit due to the UA investments as well as quite big difference in the net working capital change, which was almost EUR 11 million in Q4 ’18 and EUR 1 million in Q4 ’19. The cash balance at the end of Q4 was EUR 124.7 million. And during Q4, we also used EUR 5.1 million in share buybacks. And this, combined with dividends of EUR 7.1 million in Q2, means that the company returned a total of EUR 7.2 million to shareholders during the year.

The Board of Directors is proposing a dividend of EUR 0.09 to the AGM to be held on 31st March 2020, and that is a similar level as in 2018. Based on the outstanding shares at the end of ’19, the dividends will amount to about EUR 7.2 million.

Now let’s move on to the 2020 outlook. During 2020, we aim to launch 1 to 3 new games. The timing of the game launches always depends on how the games progress in soft launch and where — when we are ready to scale up the UA. Therefore, we do not give a full year 2020 revenue guidance. As said earlier, we start the year with a lower user acquisition level than we ended last year. The lower user acquisition investments in the beginning of the year and the planned cost savings in Hatch Entertainment that we’ll discuss later also in this call leads that to the adjusted operating profit to improve.

Let’s further discuss some basis for the outlook. Our strategy is very much to seek growth in the games business through improving the performance of our key games to drive operations and developing new games. The brand license segment is optimized for profit at a lower revenue level, which we expect this year to decline to approximately 50% year-on-year. Hatch Entertainment annualized expenses expected to be approximately EUR 5 million on an adjusted basis after restructuring and aligning with its new strategy.

And let’s also discuss more detailed outlook per games category. We believe Angry Birds Dream Blast has the potential to grow on an annual basis but starts the year on a lower quarter run rate compared to end of 2019. The game has a strong feature road map, focusing on improvements, both on long-term retention and monetization. We’re also continuing to develop Sugar Blast to live ops for its core audience and improve retention and monetization in order to scale the game up once the opportunity arises.

Revenues of Angry Birds 2 stabilized despite much lower user acquisition investments year-on-year. We further focus on improving the performance of the game through introducing new updates that increase engagement with our core users. Revenue of the other games in the earn category, Angry Birds Match, Angry Birds Friends and Angry Birds Pop, is expected to continue to decline at a steady but slow pace. We have lowered or stopped user acquisition investments into these 3 games.

The catalog games, we expect to continue declining over time. They still receive substantial amount of organic downloads, but the active user base and revenues are expected to decline over time as we will not develop these games further.

On new games, Kati will continue on that on the next slide and our road map.

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [4]

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Sure. Thanks, René. Yes. Let’s go now a little bit deeper and take a look at our games pipeline. How does that look as of today? And as René just mentioned, we have 3 games in soft launch, 1 from each of our studios and all with new IP. So we have World Quest, Small Town Murders and Phoenix Rangers.

On top of these soft launch games, we have 4 games in different phases of production, both Angry Birds games and non-Angry Birds games. We are all the time also working on new prototypes and concepts to add more projects in the beginning of the development pipeline.

As we have discussed earlier, the soft launch is very much about testing, improving and validating the scalability of a game. We will only launch a game when and if we are satisfied with the KPIs and are confident that we can grow the game to adequate levels. If we do not reach our targets for the game during the soft launch, we will not launch the game. External matters such as market situation can also impact our decision-making about launching a game or not or what would be the exact timing of the launch.

For the reasons mentioned above, in January, we took actually a decision not to continue Angry Birds Pop Blast. The game didn’t reach the KPIs set forth during the soft launch, and thus, we saw that it was better for the team working on the game to concentrate on live titles that we wish to grow further and also start new titles with higher ambitions than what we could have achieved with AB Pop Blast.

This year, we aim to launch at least 1 to 3 new games. But as said, what are the games to be launched and the precise timing of the launches are always dependent on the KPIs and scalability.

World Quest is a mid-core game, although very accessible. We categorized the game to be idle RPG game, which means that the characters keep on progressing even when the game is not actively played. This is an innovative take on RPG, and given the level of novelty implied, it requires still more iterations before we are ready to launch it. We continue to see a very engaged audience playing the soft launch version, which is positive, but we still need to work on it to improve both monetization and retention metrics. Idle RPG games are growing 120% year-on-year, indicating demand for deep yet, at the same time, highly accessible games, and this is what we are offering.

Then moving on to Small Town Murders. That is a gripping puzzle game where players are challenged to solve crimes as they progress through the levels. We are mixing another type of narrative metagame to a puzzle action phase. And the result is an enticing game where players long for discovering how the story will unfold.

Phoenix Rangers is a puzzle RPG game that entered soft launch in November. With this new IP game, we are targeting more mid-core players while still being able to benefit from our puzzle expertise. We’re still in relatively early phases of soft launch, and we are focusing on development of — on integrating social features as the next steps for the game.

Let’s also look at a short video, kind of like illustrating games maybe even a little bit better.

(presentation)

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [5]

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All right. So that gave you a bit of a taste what’s cooking there.

So now turning to Hatch. As we have communicated earlier, Hatch Entertainment, Rovio’s 80%-owned subsidiary developing a cloud-based streaming service for mobile games, has, during 2019, been conducting an external financing round. We have now decided to end that route and will evaluate strategic alternatives for Hatch going forward.

Simultaneously, Hatch has reassessed its strategy. And going forward, it will focus on Hatch Kids, which is a subscription and streaming-based digital entertainment and edutainment service tailored for children and families, offering a safe place for children to play. Currently, Hatch Kids is in soft launch in Finland and Sweden on Android, and we have seen encouraging early performance, for example, in retention and funnel conversion. The strategic decision to focus on Hatch Kids instead of the Hatch premium service is based on several facts.

Firstly, the competitive landscape in the game streaming service has evolved and intensified during 2019. New streaming services have been brought in the market for different platforms.

Secondly, Hatch premium service benefits from 5G networks and devices. However, the rollout of those seem to be slower than expected. Hatch Kids service is less sensitive to mobile network speeds and thus also works on a good 4G connection, which provides for a larger addressable market already today.

Accordingly, this reassessing and refocusing of strategy, Hatch is planning to restructure its operations to align with the refocused strategy, and the planned annualized cost savings are approximately EUR 6 million.

So with this, I will thank you and turn back to Veli.

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Veli-Pekka Puolakanaho, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – IR Director [6]

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Thank you, Kati. Thank you, René. (Operator Instructions) Please, operator, we are now ready for questions.

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Questions and Answers

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Operator [1]

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(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Steven Weber from Climbing Rose Capital.

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Steven Weber;Climbing Rose Capital;Manager, [2]

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Yes. I was wondering if you could talk about your capital allocation strategy in your buyback, in particular, which, if I understand correctly, you’re mostly way into the current buyback program, and what your plans might be for initiating another one.

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [3]

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Right. Thank you for the question. I mean yes, correctly, we have a buyback program ongoing right now. And obviously, we will evaluate the situation once this program has been finished. But from a capital allocation strategy perspective, obviously, M&A is one of those initiatives that we have been looking very thoroughly. It’s additional tool for growth on top of the organic growth, obviously. And for example, shares that has been bought back could be also used for that purpose.

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Operator [4]

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(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from Pete-Veikko Kujala from SEB.

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Pete-Veikko Kujala, SEB, Research Division – Equity Analyst [5]

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Firstly, about your decision to scrap the Angry Birds Pop 2. Can you give a little light on why is that? Because you’re currently running the — kind of the first Angry Birds Pop version still in your earn category. So why is the old version still running and you’re using some UA on that but not for the new Pop 2 version?

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [6]

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I mean yes, the original Angry Birds Pop game is still there, and it’s playing quite nicely. As we can see, it’s been holding quite well. And of course, I mean we keep on having that as one of our offering for gamers at this point of time. But obviously, I mean most of our UA is — as you heard from René already, is targeted obviously to our grow games.

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Pete-Veikko Kujala, SEB, Research Division – Equity Analyst [7]

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Yes. And a little bit more about your UA. You mentioned that it’s going to be lower starting from this year or 2020. But what should we think about low? Because 2019 was quite high already. So are we talking about low compared to 2019 or low compared to the previous levels where you’ve been at?

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René Lindell, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CFO [8]

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Yes. So I — in the script, basically, I already gave a hint of that that we are closer to 20% of UA spend per — of games revenues, so that gives you an indication that we were at 40% in Q3 and Q4.

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Operator [9]

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And our next question is from Veikko Silvasti from Nordea Markets.

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Veikkopekka Silvasti, Nordea Markets, Research Division – Assistant Analyst [10]

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It’s Veikko Silvasti here. Just to get back on the earlier question on user acquisition expenditure. So you mean 20% of games revenue for Q1 and Q2 possibly, of course, depending on the scheduled coming game launches. Did I get it correctly?

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René Lindell, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CFO [11]

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Yes. I think the level that we are at this point of time running at the beginning of the year is 20% of games revenues. Of course, that can change. As said, if we see opportunity in the market, if we see that the new updates, one big update is coming in Angry Birds 2 actually this week, if that enables us to increase UA, of course, then we will take that opportunity. And then timing of game launches, so it’s too early to comment on a Q2 level. But as we start Q1 at this level, then it’s understandably that Q1 is lower than Q3, Q4.

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Veikkopekka Silvasti, Nordea Markets, Research Division – Assistant Analyst [12]

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Then secondly, maybe on brand licensing unit. The content licensing revenues seemed utterly weak. What’s the reason for that? Is this the run rate we are going to see in the future?

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René Lindell, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CFO [13]

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So I think we’ve been discussing the movie business model and how the first movie revenues declined over time. That’s just the nature of that business. And I think Movie 2, we discussed already last time, that that business has been taken down and we said the lifetime revenues of that will be lower. Although I think in this Q4, the first movie revenues were lower than expected as well. I think — is that a trend or is it just timing? Timing issue is something that it’s too early to say.

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Veikkopekka Silvasti, Nordea Markets, Research Division – Assistant Analyst [14]

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Okay. And then secondly, on the operating expenses of the brand licensing unit. Now that the restructuring is done, can we expect that the operating expenses will come down about 60% as the head count also is cut by around 60%? Or how should we look at it for 2020?

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René Lindell, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CFO [15]

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Yes. I think we announced the amount of roles reduced in brand licensing that, plus other operating expenses, it’s about EUR 2 million in — on a yearly basis.

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Veikkopekka Silvasti, Nordea Markets, Research Division – Assistant Analyst [16]

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Okay. So about EUR 2 million in the savings just to make fit the roles.

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René Lindell, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CFO [17]

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The savings is EUR 2 million, yes.

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Veikkopekka Silvasti, Nordea Markets, Research Division – Assistant Analyst [18]

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Okay. Then maybe turning to the Games business. Now that the Angry Birds Pop Blast is killed, then do you have 3 games in the soft launch? And are we still expecting 1 to 3 game launches for this year? How should we view year 2021? Can it be like a year, again, without any game launches like 2019? Or what’s your plan on this one?

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [19]

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I mean as we discussed, having 1 — 3 games in soft launch right now and then 4 games in different phases of the pipeline as of today. Of course, we are aiming to see game launches going forward as well. But at the moment, it’s obviously too early to commit to anything further than what we have said today. But the pipeline is healthy, and obviously, we keep on driving the business towards game launches.

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Veikkopekka Silvasti, Nordea Markets, Research Division – Assistant Analyst [20]

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Okay. Yes. And then maybe finally on Hatch. Can we expect to see any revenue on Hatch Entertainment or the Hatch for Kids during 2020? Or is it going to be delayed somewhere further?

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [21]

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Right. I mean there’s been — it’s smallish revenue from Hatch Kids already, but obviously, we need to see now how the product launch advances during this year. As said, it is in soft launch right now in Finland and Sweden, and the plan is to go for a global launch with the product or, let’s say, not global launch in the sense that it would cover the whole world but basically extend the current markets from Finland and Sweden to Europe first during the springtime, and then thereafter, see how things move forward and widen the market for the product. So it is a bit too early to start estimating those at this point of time.

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Veikkopekka Silvasti, Nordea Markets, Research Division – Assistant Analyst [22]

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Okay. And then just a bit further on that. So a small revenue is already seen. Is it — is the revenue from ads or is actually someone is already paying for the premium service or the service for kids?

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [23]

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Yes. There are some subscribers already for the service, yes, existing.

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Operator [24]

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(Operator Instructions) Our next question is from [Johan Matomela] from [Wiley].

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Unidentified Analyst, [25]

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Some — a question about the user acquisition costs, some — one more. What’s the reasoning behind the thing that you are cutting back, the acquisition — user acquisition costs? And understandable when you are not launching, but what about the growth category games? Shouldn’t — if you have like promising games, shouldn’t you do user acquisition heavily? So what’s the reasoning behind this? And — well, let’s start from that.

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René Lindell, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CFO [26]

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Yes. I think on the user acquisition perspective, if we follow a certain payback model, we want a 12-month payback on those investments. And as said, we only incrementally increases in UA end of the year. We didn’t see that payback. So we decided to scale back as our governance model specifies, and that — scale back it then down, of course, in the biggest games, Angry Birds Dream Blast, which has the most UA. It’s not scaled back to a low level. It’s still significant, large level for that game. So it’s still in the grow category. But I think that’s the reason. And of course, once we see the opportunity in the market and we have new features coming from the game, then we’re looking at being able to scale back up again.

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Unidentified Analyst, [27]

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And the other question about the brand licensing business. You’re lowering that down and doing some restructuring there. How do you see — where — what is your brand licensing business in the future? What works and what doesn’t? What are you not doing anymore? Who are the best customers that you mentioned on your press release?

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [28]

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Yes. We are — we did do certain restructuring and refocusing in brand licensing unit during last year. And we’re now focusing on certain territories in key categories that are important for us and are looking obviously to expand our business in those areas, in brand licensing.

And in general, brand licensing is naturally a business that offers a strong visibility for the brand through multiple different touch points, being it consumer products or animations or location-based entertainment. And we want obviously to keep this very, very strongly moving forward.

It will also help our Games business with — giving the visibility, as I said, to the brand and keeping the [recognizable] of the brand in a high level.

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Unidentified Analyst, [29]

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Yes, yes. Is there something that you won’t be doing anymore since sort of as a consumer view, it might seem that some consumer products have not sold very well? Do you — can you give any ideas what have you learned?

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [30]

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Well, yes. We have obviously learned a lot during the year. It’s been part of our business since most — almost from the beginning. But like I said, we are now focusing on specific categories, for example, promotions, fast-moving consumer goods, location-based entertainment that we have seen that works very well, and we want to kind of like start growing those categories. So that’s the strategy right now.

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Unidentified Analyst, [31]

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And excuse me for asking, but what is a location-based thing?

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [32]

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It’s like activity parks, for example, which are…

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Unidentified Analyst, [33]

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(inaudible)

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [34]

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Yes.

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Operator [35]

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And our next question is from Olli Eloranta from Danske Bank.

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Olli Eloranta, Danske Bank Markets Equity Research – Analyst [36]

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This is Olli from Danske. I have 2 questions. First, if we look at the games that are in soft launch, they’re all non-Angry Bird games. So what I’m wondering here is that, how much more are you willing to pay in terms of cost bringing staff for non-AB games compared to AB games given that you can’t leverage the well-known brand in marketing new games? So how do you see this impacting your UA investment in the future?

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René Lindell, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CFO [37]

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Thanks for the question. It really doesn’t matter what kind of IP. If it’s Angry Birds or a new IP, we have the same governance model. So every game needs — and the incremental UA needs to get that payback. So in that perspective, there’s no difference, and we are prepared to use the UA as much as that game — specific game can scale up. So I think in that perspective, if you look at Dream Blast and Sugar Blast, completely different scale, but also UA is on different scale. So the UA scale is actually with the revenue. So in that perspective, it’s the scalability of the game that, in the end, dictates how much UA is used and not necessarily the IP.

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Olli Eloranta, Danske Bank Markets Equity Research – Analyst [38]

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Okay. Then the second question is about PlayRaven game, which, if I have understood correctly, was in soft launch for a brief period of time late last year. Has there been any employee changes in the PlayRaven team since you acquired the studio? Or are the same key personnel still developing the game?

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Kati Levoranta, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – CEO [39]

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Much of the same people are still developing the game. And obviously, we have brought some knowledge and expertise from Rovio side that the team wanted to have in the development. So of course, the team has been actually growing a little bit from that perspective with additional Rovions also joining the team. So some slight changes, obviously, but all towards, of course, helping the development of the game going forward.

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Operator [40]

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And as there are no further questions, I will hand the word back to the speakers for any final comments.

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Veli-Pekka Puolakanaho, Rovio Entertainment Oyj – IR Director [41]

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Thank you all for the call and the questions. That’s all for now, and until the next time.