Edited Transcript of SKB.AX earnings conference call or presentation 19-Feb-20 11:00pm GMT

WOLLONGONG Mar 20, 2020 (Thomson StreetEvents) — Edited Transcript of Experience Co Ltd earnings conference call or presentation Wednesday, February 19, 2020 at 11:00:00pm GMT

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by and welcome to the Experience Co Half Year 2020 Results Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. I’d now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, CEO, Mr. John O’Sullivan. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Thank you, Kevin. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you very much for your time this morning. Owen Kemp and myself will be taking you through our first half FY ’20 results.

Before I hand over to Owen to jump through and walk through our financials for the first half of 2020, I’d like to give you a very quick business update. And certainly, from an environmental point of view, I guess, we can all say that we are existing in a pretty extraordinary environment currently, particularly over the last 2 months. But I think though to reset a couple of things is that it’s very important to note that our core strategy that we announced to the market during the course of our full year results at the end of financial year FY ’19 and then subsequently at our strategic review in November 2020 remains unchanged and is indeed on track for where we would like it to be.

We still are a business that’s attractively positioned within the venture tourism sector. We are well progressed in the changes to our management structures and also our business simplification, and certainly our portfolio of assets, as it stands today, is still such of a high quality. We do acknowledge the external factors that we’re currently operating in, and we’ll spend a little bit more time on that as we give a business outlook and trading update at the end of this presentation. And certainly the bushfires over December and January in New South Wales and Victoria, the weather events that we’ve endured in Australia, New Zealand, and of course COVID-19, commonly known as the coronavirus have been significant external factors that the business is now dealing with and is in a good position to deal with moving forward.

Owen will take you through our financial results for the first half of 2020, and I’ll hand over to him to do that in a few minutes. However, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that, as we said to you at the end of our — end of year presentation and our strategic review presentation this year, this year has all been about strengthening our balance sheet and also simplifying the business through cost savings. Three numbers that I’d like to call out that are in our first half of 2020. Our underlying EBITDA is at $9.1 million. That’s within our expectations of where we thought the business would be from its continuing operations for this half.

We certainly are in our annualized cost savings ahead of where we wanted to be as we turn into the year — the second half of the year at over $3 million. And very importantly, our pro forma net debt is now $7.3 million, particularly after the divestment of Great Barrier Helicopters. And as at 30th of June 2019, if you will recall, that on a pro forma basis, this was at $29.5 million. So a big reduction in our net debt and a very good strengthening of our balance sheet.

Turning now to where we are on our divestment of the noncore parts of our business that we unveiled to the market as part of our strategic review. As I’ve said before, we have completed the divestment of Great Barrier Reef Helicopters and also our Canyoning business. The Great Barrier Reef Helicopters transaction is the most significant transaction that we identified during the course of the strategic review, and to have that completed by the 2nd of January of this year was something we were very, very pleased about in terms of its progress. And in particular, we’re also very happy that we have an ongoing commercial arrangement in place with Nautilus Aviation to continue their services on our pontoon out on The Great Barrier Reef.

For the remainder of asset sales across our surplus aircraft, property, vehicle and assets, we’re certainly in various stages of progress on that, but it’s well progressed and certainly not something that we’re rushing on. And with the course of our other businesses that we have from the Raging Thunder portfolio, excluding the Millennium Spirit Marine operation, we have appointed Nash Advisory to take forward that divestment, and they are well progressed on taking these assets to market.

Finally, before I hand over to Owen to take you through the financial results in a bit more detail. As we outlined during our strategic review, one of our aims was to reduce the operating cost stock base of the business on an annualized basis during the first half of 2020 by about $3 million, which we’ve now achieved. And as we look forward to the second half of the financial year 2020, we are well positioned to actually exceed our original objective of around $6 million in annualized costs. And I think, certainly, this has been driven by a couple of factors.

Firstly, we have new leadership in our Skydiving Australia and also our Great Barrier Reef operations. Both general managers appointed at the end of October have been more aggressive in looking at their cost base in those parts of our business. And secondly, of course, the external factors that we are now dealing with has given us an increased appetite to look more aggressively at our cost base, and that’s something that we’ll continue to review as we go through the second half of this financial year.

So that now concludes my business update. I’ll now hand over to Owen to take you through our financial results.

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Owen Kemp, Experience Co Limited – CFO [3]

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Thanks, John. So I’m now on Slide 9 for those of you following the presentation. And really, there’s probably a bit of a preamble before we get into the numbers today. So as John mentioned, FY ’20 is a reset year for the business, and we have undertaken a strategic review in the first half. So what that means is it had some accounting consequences. We’ll use the terminology continuing operations today. That relates to the businesses that are effectively excluding GBR and the Raging Thunder brand as we go forward. So the numbers we’ve presented here on Slide 9 and through our presentation relate to those continuing operations.

The second thing is that, at a trading level, as John has alluded to, it has been a challenging period, particularly compared to the prior corresponding period due to both operational and trading conditions. And we’ll touch on those as we get into the segments.

Now similar to John and probably the most pleasing for me being in my role as the CFO is to see that net debt and the strengthening of the balance sheet. So the pro forma net debt $7.3 million, that has us in a great position entering into the second half following the divestment of GBRH.

The revenue and EBIT underlying EBITDA of $60.3 million and $9.1 million, respectively, as I said, that represents the underlying basis for continuing operations. And for those — I’m sure we’ll have some questions that touch on that in terms of the financial disclosures, but I’ll try and keep it very simple. When we updated the market last year in early November and around the time of the strategic review, we had our observations on Q1 trading. I would say in the main, those conditions that we saw in Q1 largely persisted into the second quarter, which also saw the emergence of the smoke haze and the bushfires in the Southeastern Australia, which really impacts our Byron Bay to Great Ocean Road. And it may surprise a number of you, but it actually led to us having to close down our operations in Queenstown, New Zealand, on a couple of days during the period as well. So it was quite a large event that impacted our business.

And I guess the other bit just before I jump into the numbers. While we thought we did see good weather up in the North Queensland region and some strong numbers on the reef, particularly from mid-December, which was — had us actually quite cautiously encouraged as we turned the half, but it has been curtailed by the emergence of COVID-19, which we’ll talk to more as we go through the outlook.

So now turning on to Page 10 for the Skydiving business. And it rains, it pours. It’s windy. It’s bushfires. There’s a few things happening in the half year. So as I said, Q1 saw the challenging weather conditions. That is typically quite a variable period in our business. It’s a low seasonal quarter, the first quarter, but it is at the back end of winter.

Australia has recovered reasonably well into the second quarter despite the impact of the late November onward smoke haze. But for New Zealand, well, the period was somewhat of a stinker when it came to weather. And one example of that is December is a peak month in both Australia and New Zealand. And in our first 8 days in New Zealand, we only did 400 tandem jumps.

To give you an idea, historical trends, when we’re operating, we’re doing well over 200 a day in our New Zealand operation and that’s before we get into a seasonally high period. So that did have a big impact in our New Zealand business.

So unsurprisingly, I guess, that does mean, and as we flagged at Q1 that our volumes were down on PCP. That said, there are some good news stories that are within the numbers. It was pleasing to see the pricing improvement per jump kick up at 2.3%. So — and that’s despite the mix of business from New Zealand is lower in that period. So we’ve actually gone against the volume trend there. And what that really — at an underlying level, we are seeing some price rises in there, which is encouraging. Secondly, the bookings, inevitably, it’s going to be impacted by external factors. But it proved quite resilient in the period, albeit with December and January and COVID-19, you do see a short-term dislocation between booking and jump activity. And thirdly, I could — the muscle memory is there in this business. This Skydiving business, and I might have mentioned this before, it has great operational leverage and great skill base that’s been honed over a number of years. So in a month to a tough half, we actually got record jump days in both our Australian and New Zealand operations, where we did 354 at Sydney, Wollongong on a day, I think that was on December 29.

And then over in New Zealand, we did 443 at our single drop zone, NZONE. So there are tremendous numbers that really shows that muscle memory is there and it knows how to flex when it has to and when the volume is there. Otherwise, the capital discipline in Skydiving has been really encouraging as well. So we’ve released about $1.6 million in capital without impacting the capacity of the business. So that’s coming along nicely.

And just to depart from Skydiving and into The Great Barrier Reef, I would say at this point in time, we’ve covered on the agenda, 17% of Australian jump volume in FY ’19 was China nationals. And in our New Zealand business, it was a tick under 40%. So while strict travel restrictions are in place and COVID-19 is on the agenda, we expect this to be the new norm, certainly until we look at the 3rd of June. And John will talk about this, that we’re certainly seeing those numbers tail off as we head into the second half.

Moving on to Slide 11 and the reef base business — Great Barrier Reef experiences. Obviously, a significant restructuring has taken place in (inaudible) half. And what’s also happened is we’ve seen Cairns airport arrivals continue to trend downwards, which has been — that has trended down 3.3% half-on-half, but it’s more pronounced when you look from September 2018, that the Cairns market has been on a down cycle. So that leaves us with revenue down $4.3 million and EBITDA down $3.8 million. There’s a few things going on in that trend. So it’s due to a decline in the market conditions and then the lag effect of unwinding a higher-than-necessary cost base that have become embedded into the business since the period of acquisition undertaken in — going back into 2017.

From where I sit in my seat, very pleased, as John alluded to, with the appointment of the new GM. And the speed of execution in flexing the cost base, which is going to be particularly important as we head through the outturn for the second half.

For the financial period, the prior year tougher comps start cycling out in our business from the December month. And we did have strong momentum from mid-December with a number of close to capacity days on our reef-based products. And as I said, we entered the second half with a cautious optimism. Then with — coinciding with Chinese New Year, however, as we all know, we saw the ABS group ban from China coming in effect from the 24th of January, which had immediate impact on our booking levels, particularly in our Green Island product, which is typically a group volume product. And then this was followed by the Australian government’s border restrictions implemented on February 1. This will continue to have a material impact on this market in the near term with a combination of both the group and FIT dynamics both at play in this market.

Moving to cash flow on Slide 12. Two most important things here really. It happened post December 31, I would say. So we’ve received the GBRH proceeds. And then we’ve had the emergence of the external factors have certainly been magnified.

One thing to remember as we enter the second half is typically ours is a business like a lot of Australian- and New Zealand-based tourism business that feast in the high-volume summer months, and that will carry a business through the leaner winter time, particularly in our Skydiving business. So in that respect, with the external factors at play, we are presented with a unique challenge for our business. But it is actually uncertain times I guess across the industry. But we’re not alone there. John mentioned the savings initiatives underway. That’s going to be a hands-on daily activity that we work with each of the GMs and all levels of the business, but the immediate priority is pulling the immediate cost levers without damaging long-term value of the business.

Moving into the balance sheet. Pleased to say the group has a strong balance sheet and a well-capitalized asset base, well placed to enter into a period of uncertain times as we see before us today. And most importantly, seeing that net debt down at $7.3 million heading into the half and pro forma for GBR was quite encouraging.

So with that, I’d like to conclude this section of — today’s financial section of the call. And I’ll hand back to John to recap on our achievements for the half and the near-term outlook for the group.

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John O’Sullivan, Experience Co Limited – CEO & Executive Director [4]

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Thank you, Owen. If I draw your attention now to Slide 15 of the deck. I think in closing today’s presentation of our results for the half year, I think it’s important when we look to the outlook, we also just reflect quickly on the first half achievements. And 3 things I would say to you that we have done and are well progressed on.

Our strategic review is now complete and our actions are currently underway and are on track to be completed as we originally announced in November. Pleasingly, our cost savings initiatives and our divestment in noncore assets program is also on track. And as we said earlier, we are certainly trying to accelerate and be more aggressive, particularly in the cost savings part of the business. And our first half performance was largely in line with our own internal expectations.

As we turn toward the second half of 2020, I think it’s fair to say that the external factors that have been bucketing the industry will obviously continue, particularly given the impacts of COVID-19. And what I would say to you is that from our perspective is that this is very much something that we don’t anticipate to cycle out of our business prior to the 30th of June. It is very much an unknown quantity, and we certainly do believe and I certainly believe from my previous experience, that this is something that will not only impact China in the immediate term, but we’ll also see impacts on other Asian markets, particularly Asian markets in the near-term for the remainder of the financial year.

We also believe that whilst there will be — whilst there will be opportunities, particularly as we deal with the impacts from things like bushfires and also the weather events, for us to work aggressively with state and territory governments on marketing initiatives as well as cost-saving initiatives like the ones that the Queensland government has just announced, COVID will be something that, that takes a bit more time for us to be able to regain lost sales and then also return that market to — return that market to growth within our business.

That all said, however, our core strategy will remain unchanged, and we will continue to proactively respond to those external factors, addressing our cost base, looking at flex in our operations. And certainly, very importantly, looking to work in growing revenue out of markets that are unaffected by that — by those external factors, and particularly local markets and, in particularly, the Western markets that are still coming into Australia in good volumes.

So with that, we’ll conclude. I’ll hand over to Kevin now to facilitate questions and answers.

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Questions and Answers

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Operator [1]

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(Operator Instructions) But our first question is from Mr. John O’Shea from Ord Minnett.

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John O’Shea, Ord Minnett Limited, Research Division – Senior Research Analyst [2]

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Just a question. I noticed your comments about coronavirus as we look out towards the end of this financial year. How do you sort of see that? I mean let’s — assuming that that’s the case, your base case scenario that unfolds, what do you think that, that — what is your — what are you assuming or what’s your experience, John, in terms of what that will then mean for FY ’21 at this early stage?

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John O’Sullivan, Experience Co Limited – CEO & Executive Director [3]

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It’s a really good question and quite a difficult question to answer because I don’t think any of us actually know how this is going to play out or cycle out. Because I think what you’ve got to look at, there’s obviously been an immediate and severe effect in the Chinese market, and we’ve seen that by significantly reduced aviation capacity coming into Australia, which, based on what we’ve seen this morning from Qantas’ announcement, doesn’t look like it’s going to be returning until as such time as there’s more certainty around the containment of the virus.

And secondly you’ve also then got the, I guess, the flowing impact into other international markets as well. And particularly Asian markets, which when you have external shocks such as these, you generally see that the outbound travel comes a little slow. Certainly, growth certainly slows or if not, stops for a period of time until such time as effect has passed. So I think for us, the view that we’re taking, John, is that we want to see how the April school holidays domestically cycle out and cycle through our business because we will — currently, we’re in the midst of what is normally the Chinese New Year months in January and February. And I think every tourism business looks at Chinese New Year across those 2 months. We’re now coming out of that.

In April, we’ll head into the Australian school holidays. There has been far more concerted effort than ever before on marketing Australia as a destination to Australians by government, but also by the trade. And I think from our perspective, we want to see how March and certainly, April cycles through before we understand — with abundant clarity on the impacts as we move forward in FY ’21. It’s just — it is very — the words being used by a lot that it is it’s certainly just very unprecedented times for the sector.

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Operator [4]

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(Operator Instructions) Our next question in queue from Allan Franklin from Canaccord.

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Allan Franklin, Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division – Research Analyst [5]

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A few questions. I might just — you might just step through them. Just in terms of — I think you obviously referenced state governments and other government initiatives. Just wondering to what extent you can take control into your own hands and sort of speak to hotels, agents and other people in the market to help push volumes?

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John O’Sullivan, Experience Co Limited – CEO & Executive Director [6]

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Yes. Well, certainly, we do that as our normal course of our business anyway. So we’re not relying on state government response. So we have major partnerships with the likes of Luxury Escapes, Ignite, usual players in market, and we’re certainly — we certainly have been, even before the impact of COVID-19, we certainly have been — we certainly have been pushing those aggressively, and certainly with the appointment of Kathryn O’Brien, that’s going up a level in the restructure of our sales team.

I think what the government — the government opportunity provides us is on 2 levels. Firstly, the additional spend in creating demand for Australians to holiday in Australia is something that — is something that I think will mop up — compile a segment of the market that may have been looking at holidays offshore in the forward months that now are thinking because of COVID-19, we’re not going to do that. So that gives an opportunity of demand in the destinations into which we operate. The other thing is on our cost base. And certainly, the Queensland government’s announcement recently of the relief of operating charges for marine operators out of the reef fleet terminal has also been (inaudible) but certainly has been a significant sizing for our operations up there and/or marine operators (inaudible). So from the government point of view, it gets a — I think on 2 levels. But I think to your fundamental question, we have been working with those agents anyway. So it’s just now — we’re continuing to do that and upscaling our efforts in local sales and in our partnerships with the trade.

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Allan Franklin, Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division – Research Analyst [7]

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Sure. And then just a quick follow on. The — have you had to change scheduling or staff yet? And/or what might have sort of triggered you to do that?

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John O’Sullivan, Experience Co Limited – CEO & Executive Director [8]

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Yes. Our business is one of two halves. The beauty of our Skydiving model is that it’s a very variable cost base. So if we don’t operate, we don’t have a fixed cost in terms of the tandem (inaudible) are prepaid, the [packages] are prepaid, cetera. So the model can flex very easily based on demand. You go up to The Great Barrier Reef, we have altered our schedule. And I guess, one of the pleasing things in having Adam Jones as our general manager up there, he came from a business which was very seasonal. So he’s got a very keen understanding of when to alter schedules, when to maybe suspend a service for a particular day.

So for example, with our Big Cat service, generally, at the moment, one day a week, we’re suspending that operation. And we’ll continue — we review that pretty much on a daily basis. So we have implemented that up in North Queensland. And pleasingly, our perspective is that we have now a general manager who is well versed in that. So we are acutely monitoring that and implementing that as we need to.

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Allan Franklin, Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division – Research Analyst [9]

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Sure. And then just a quick last one. I mean in terms of just considering organic growth options over the next couple of years, are you any more progressed on thinking about potential organic drop zones or other initiatives in the business? Or has that sort of been put on hold, I guess, with the near-term impact of COVID?

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John O’Sullivan, Experience Co Limited – CEO & Executive Director [10]

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No. Look, we are looking at organic growth opportunities, and we also are looking at other opportunities as well. I mean I think one of the things that will come out of this is probably opportunities from an acquisition front. But as we’ve said earlier in our earlier presentations, we’ll be applying a focus on capital, which ensures that the return on any investments we make, whether they’re organic or whether acquisitive, will be in the best interest of our shareholders.

And so out of something like COVID, I think there will be some opportunities. Sadly, I guess, for some parts of the industry, and we’ll continue to monitor that as they come along. But always with the, I guess, the discipline on return on invested capital and what’s best for the business and shareholders.

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Operator [11]

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(Operator Instructions) And our next question is from James Tracey from Veritas Securities.

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James Tracey, Veritas Securities Limited, Research Division – Director of Industrial Research [12]

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John and Owen, a couple of questions from me. The first one is on COVID. Are you able to give us a bit more color on the impact it’s had in terms of weekly sales and profits, just so that we can model it out, if it continues for a longer time or a shorter time? And the second question really is on New Zealand. So seeing the 14% volume decline there — a bit of a surprise really, given that COVID hasn’t had an impact in the period and historically, it’s sort of high single digits. So yes, could you give us a bit more color on what the growth in the bookings were? So maybe it was just the weather that caused the drop in natural jumps and the bookings were higher. And then the final question is around the segmental profit. I was just wondering whether or not you’ve changed the definitions because last year, you reported $13.1 million in Skydive EBITDA. And this year, you’ve said that the prior year was $11.1 million. So it looks like you’ve redefined what the prior year profit was.

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Owen Kemp, Experience Co Limited – CFO [13]

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Thanks, James. So it’s Owen here, I’ll pick up that. I might actually start with the last one. I should have actually included that. So in terms of the segment, what we’ll all note is we have — as flagged at year-end, we weren’t looking at how we allocate the costs and how to — previously, we had a bigger bucket in corporate. So what we’ve gone through is done an exercise as trying to marry that up and get it in the right buckets, James. So they’ve now been presented on a like-for-like basis in the accounts for this period. So — and it is a true representation of what the direct costs are in relation with those operations. So you did right there. Secondly, and probably doing it in reverse order, the New Zealand business, so this is quite an interesting one. So definitely, in terms of our — December was the big driver of the 14.3%. So it may come as a surprise at face level to you guys. But it really is a weather story.

So to give you an idea, like, if we — I think we calculated if we actually did another 4 days, we would have delivered December and then you get to about a sort of 10% decrease, which is probably more in line with what you would have been seeing from the outside. So certainly, when I look at the first half, very much a weather story in Queenstown. So remembering, we are in Queenstown, have late-season snow, and like even to the point of — I think it was January 2, we had snow fall, just unremarkable, which is right near our drop zone there.

Encouragingly, and the booking levels is always — it’s a tough stat because when you have weather, you start to lose that visibility with the short booking cycle. But it’s certainly nothing near that would alarm us in terms of forward bookings and the volume there.

In the month of January, it shot the lights out of Queenstown. So our operation, well above our expectations. So in terms of the internal numbers, I think we’re roughly about 20-odd percent ahead of where we thought we’re going to be for the January month. So nothing…

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James Tracey, Veritas Securities Limited, Research Division – Director of Industrial Research [14]

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Yes. Just on that, do you continue to see New Zealand Skydiving as a sort of mid-single-digit grower? Because I mean that’s what it has been in the past.

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Owen Kemp, Experience Co Limited – CFO [15]

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Yes. Yes, that’s probably a way to think about it. I think what we’re going to see is a combination — if I look at New Zealand, James, it’s a combination of — the weather has been absolutely shocking. And an encouraging result is this (inaudible) of our GM. The weather in New Zealand has had a really tough period in terms of weather impact on operations. But what we’re going to see is going to be a bit confusing this period because, obviously, with the high representation of the China business in New Zealand, it’s been a key driver of growth. So we’re not dissimilar to any tourism business in Australia and New Zealand, probably over the last 5 to 7 years. But it’s more pronounced in New Zealand.

So we’ve gone from, if we think of Chinese New Year, we had — fortunately, we were able to execute the Chinese New Year period for our New Zealand Skydive business. It has very limited impact. So the travel restrictions didn’t really kick in because we already have the China nationals in market. So they’re already in the country prior to that restriction in Chinese New Year. What we have seen certainly in the last week, is we’ve gone from having a — as I said, the high 30% representation of China nationals to now — so on a — if I say, the last couple of days, it’s been less than 10 China jumpers, out of numbers that have been anywhere between 170 to 200 jumps per day across the Queenstown Basin.

So it is quite a discernible decrease there. So if you’re smart, you can see it, certainly, and that’s where we would — we do certainly look at it. Look, we don’t expect — any recovery is not going to be flick the lights on and by 30 June, we’re there, and China is back and New Zealand is growing, as you say, in a normal market, high single digits. It’s not mid to high singles. We’re not going to be seeing that by 30 June. And the challenge in our business at the moment is utilizing that flexible cost base and managing with the volume we’ve got. So that really then…

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James Tracey, Veritas Securities Limited, Research Division – Director of Industrial Research [16]

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Yes. Just following up on that, so you’re basically saying that volumes are down sort of 20-odd percent versus what they were. What sort of EBITDA margins would that Skydiving business be running given that it’s a highly variable cost model?

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Owen Kemp, Experience Co Limited – CFO [17]

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In New Zealand, it’s generally anywhere in the high — very high 20s to the early 30s, and this is all on the new basis of me presenting the segment information, John. And then Australia is probably more around the mid-20s.

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Operator [18]

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(Operator Instructions) No more further questions in the queue. I’d like to hand the call back to the speakers for any closing remarks. Please go ahead.

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John O’Sullivan, Experience Co Limited – CEO & Executive Director [19]

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No, look, thank you very much for your time this morning, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for your questions to those figures. With that, we’ll draw a close to our presentation, and thank you again.

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Owen Kemp, Experience Co Limited – CFO [20]

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Thank you.

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Operator [21]

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Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude the call today. Thank you all for participating. You may all disconnect. Goodbye.

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