April 19, 2024

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FTSE jumps on reopening hopes and trade relief

Well that’s all from us today, thanks for following along.

Here’s a quick recap of what happened today…

Economics: Ifo business climate index (Germany), manufacturing confidence (France), Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision

French drugmaker Sanofihas announced that it expects approval for the potential Covid-19 vaccine it is developing with GlaxoSmithKline by the first half of next year, faster than it had previously anticipated.

Via PA: KitKat has severed its ties with Fairtrade, despite warnings that thousands of farmers will be hit by move.

The boss of Fairtrade said owner Nestle’s decision to cut its 10-year association with the non-profit organisation is “profoundly disappointing”.

The Swiss-owned food giant said it will now source its cocoa for KitKat bars from farms on Rainforest Alliance terms instead of those working with Fairtrade accreditation.

Nestle, which already uses Rainforest Alliance certified farmers on other bars such as Aero and Yorkie, said it will start the new partnership for KitKat from October 2020.

However, Michael Gidney, chief executive of the Fairtrade Foundation, told the PA news agency that its cocoa farmers in the Ivory Coast were “devastated” by the news.

Stocks in Europe closed in positive territory today as traders welcomed news of lockdown restrictions in England from July 4.

The FTSE 100 jumped 1.21pc to 6,320.12 while the FTSE 250 gained 0.49pc, closing at 17,660.09.

White households earn more than one and a half times as much as their black counterparts according to damning new figures which highlight the extent of financial inequality in Britain.

White families come out as the highest earners in rankings from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), with an income before taxes and benefits averaging almost £42,400 in the year to April 2019.

By contrast black families earned an average of just below £26,000.

Most of the gap is closed after taxes and benefits are taken into account. Actions by the Government narrow the spread of earnings to under £6,000, cutting white families’ earnings to £38,222 on average while boosting the final incomes of black households to £32,353.

Read Tim Wallace’s full article here 

Table of Contents

03:25 PM

Britain to tailor City rules to help boost insurers after Brexit, Sunak says

The UK will tailor rules on the amount of capital insurers must hold after Brexit as part of a new financial services regime, Chancellor Rishi Sunak announced on Tuesday. My colleague Michael O’Dwyer continues:

EU rules governing insurers, investment firms and capital markets will no longer apply in the UK after the Brexit transition period ends on Dec 31. 

The insurance rules, known as Solvency II, impose tough capital requirements on insurers to make sure they can withstand major economic shocks and spikes in payouts. 

They have long been criticised by British insurers for being inflexible and failing to take account of differences in how insurance works in different countries.

Promising to reform the regulations, the Chancellor said: ““The Government … plans to bring forward a review of certain features of Solvency II to ensure that it is properly tailored to take account of the structural features of the UK insurance sector.”

03:16 PM

Handover

With not long left until European markets close up for the day, I’m handing over to my colleague LaToya Harding, who will steer things eveningward. Thanks for following along today!

02:56 PM

Full report: Coronavirus business bill hits £40bn

My colleague Russell Lynch has a full report on today’s data on the Government’s coronavirus relief spending. He writes:

Around £40bn has been doled out to crisis-hit businesses through taxpayer-backed emergency lending schemes as firms battle through the coronavirus storm, official figures show.

Almost 1m loans have now been handed out through schemes designed to keep ailing companies afloat.

The Bounce Back Loan scheme for the smallest firms has been responsible for the bulk of this support. It was introduced last month and comes with a guarantee that taxpayers will foot 100pc of lenders’ losses if a borrower defaults.

02:23 PM

Chancellor has difficulty identifying pub

Not sure that electricals shop will have the convivial atmosphere the Chancellor of the Exchequer has been missing:

02:18 PM

US PMIs: Key details

Here’s IHS Markit on those PMI numbers:

US private sector firms signalled a notable slowdown in the rate of output contraction in June, as businesses began to reopen on a larger scale. Manufacturers and service providers alike registered much softer declines in output compared to May.

Some more key points:

  • New business across the private sector declined further in June, albeit at only a marginal pace
  • The rate of contraction nevertheless slowed notably, with manufacturers in particular registering only a fractional decrease
  • The downturn in new business from abroad also slowed significantly
  • The June survey meanwhile signalled further cuts to workforce numbers across the private sector, albeit at only a modest rate
  • For the first time since February, private sector firms recorded increases in both input prices and output charges

 IHS Markit’s Chris Williamson said:

The flash PMI data showed the US economic downturn abating markedly in June. The second quarter started with an alarming rate of collapse but output and jobs are now falling at far more modest rates in both the manufacturing and service sectors. The improvement will fuel hopes that the economy can return to growth in the third quarter. 

02:12 PM

US PMIs rise

The latest US PMIs readings are in. Like most of Europe, they indicate a continued contraction in activity across all sectors – though by only the slightest margin in the case of manufacturing.

Here are the readings:

  • Manufacturing: 49.6
  • Services: 46.7
  • Composite: 46.8

In this case, economists had been expecting a little better, but markets will probably take that in their stride.

02:08 PM

Cineworld sticks to July 10th reopening plans

01:45 PM

Wall Street opens in the green 

US stocks open in positive territory ahead of data that’s expected to show the US economy extended its recovery from the coronavirus-induced contraction.

01:32 PM

Braun’s bail set at €5m

Former Wirecard chief executive Markus Braun will be released as soon as he has posted €5m (£4.5m) in bail, Munich prosecutors said.

Mr Braun was arrested on Monday on suspicion of accounting fraud and share manipulation falsifying accounts, after the German payments firm disclosed a €1.9bn financial hole.

Prosecutors said Mr Braun would have to report to police weekly.

01:02 PM

BHP hires JP Morgan to sell thermal coal mine – Reuters

BHP, the world’s biggest mining company, has hred Wall Street bank JP Morgan to sell its Australian thermal coal mine amid pressure to improve its environmental credentials, Reuters reports.

The news service says:

Increased scrutiny from investors, regulators and climate change activists is prompting miners to limit their exposure to fossil fuels.

BHP’s Mt Arthur open cut mine, in the Hunter Valley region of New South Wales, supplies thermal coal, used as fuel for power plants, to domestic and international customers and could fetch between $1.5 billion (£1.2 billion) and $1.8 billion, banking sources said on condition of anonymity.

12:41 PM

Apple boss criticises Trump visa suspension

Tim Cook, chief executive of tech titan Apple. has criticised Donald Trump’s decision to suspend a range of visas for high-skilled workers.

Mr Trump’s plans would prevent hundreds of thousands of foreigners taking up jobs in the US.

12:17 PM

Sky: CMA to provisionally clear Amazon investment into Deliveroo

The UK’s competition watchdog is set to give the green light for Amazon to buy a big stake in Deliveroo, Sky News reports.

But the deal will reportedly be conducted on different terms to the ones the Competition & Markets Authority offered provisional support to just a couple of months ago.

Sky news writes:

A source close to the CMA said it had concluded that the nature of the shareholding, which would include a seat on the Deliveroo board but would not entail superior voting rights to any other shareholder-director, meant that blocking the deal would not be justified.

The decision is a preliminary one, and could still be overturned by the regulator ahead of a final decision due to be made in August.

11:59 AM

More details

11:53 AM

Hospitality restrictions eased

Alongside the distance rule change, the PM has also confirmed hotels, pubs, restaurants and cinemas will be able to re-open their doors from July 4th, a major shift in restriction policy.

An announcement along those lines was broadly expected, but that was put a bit of extra fire under a few stocks today nonetheless.

11:43 AM

Johnson: Social distancing rules to be relaxed

Over in the Commons, Boris Johnson is outlining plans to ease lockdown restrictions.

Despite that headline, it doesn’t look like we’ve reached a complete end yet. The PM said:

While we remain vigilant, we do not currently believe there is a risk of a second wave that will overwhelm the NHS…

…Thanks to our progress we can now go further and safely ease the lockdown in England

He’s announced that from July 4th, social distancing rules will be eased to at least 1 metre, rather than the current 2 metres. The PM says the results of a review into distancing will be published later this week.

11:28 AM

Full report: Corner shop sales surge

My colleague Simon Foy has a full report on this morning’s Kantar data. He writes:

Shoppers are continuing to turn to convenience stores after they experienced a lockdown boom, with sales rising 69pc in the month to June 14 according to research from Kantar.

Independent shops accounted for 14.7pc of total grocery sales over the four-week period and took £1.6bn through their tills.

Fraser McKevitt at Kantar said convenience stores had become increasingly important for consumers during lockdown, even though their market share was down from April’s peak of 16.3pc.

It came as consumer behaviour edged back towards normality with 19 million more supermarket trips made in the most recent four week period compared with May. 

11:15 AM

European shares jump, but the pacing is uneven

Here’s how Europe’s top stock indices have shifted today. Germany’s DAX is the biggest winner, with the FTSE dragging its feet somewhat somewhat compared to the rest:

10:54 AM

Fall in car accidents boosts insurer profits

A fall in car accidents during lockdown is set to propel motor insurers back to profitability but falling premiums mean that losses are likely to return by 2021. 

My colleague Michael O’Dwyer reports:

Reduced mileage during the pandemic has led to a slowdown in claims, helping to boost the coffers of car insurers. 

The net combined ratio – a key measure of profitability for insurers – is set to fall to 94.8pc this year after reaching 100.8pc in 2019, according to forecasts by consultants EY. 

Any figure below 100pc implies profitability as it means the cost of claims and overheads is less than the value of premiums sold. 

Tony Sault, an insurance consultant at EY, said: “This is an anomaly, not the start of a new trend.”

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10:39 AM

What’s live?

Your regular reminder to check out our other live blogs:

Coronavirus Article Bar with counter

10:00 AM

Equities extend gains

European markets have built on their early gains this morning, with beats across the board on PMIs fueling an upbeat mood among investors. 

Bloomberg TV – Bloomberg TV

09:53 AM

Full report: Wirecard boss arrested in Germany

My colleague Simon Foy has a full report on the arrest of Wirecard’s former boss Markus Braun. He writes:

Mr Braun will appear before a judge on Tuesday who will decide whether he will remain in custody, German prosecutors said.

The former paper billionaire has been accused by authorities of portraying Wirecard as “financially stronger and more attractive for investors and clients”.

It comes after the company said €1.9bn (£1.7bn) of cash missing from its balance sheet probably did not exist, sparking a criminal investigation into the firm. 

09:43 AM

Money round-up

Here are some of the day’s top stories from the Telegraph Money team:

Investor newsletter REFERRAL (article)

09:21 AM

More PMI reaction

Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Samuel Tombs says todays PMI readings show “solid progress”, but notes the road ahead looks tougher. He wrote:

The big leap in the composite PMI supports other indicators suggesting that GDP has rebounded in June, though a complete recovery back to pre-Covid levels likely will remain elusive this year.

Admittedly, the composite PMI remained below the 50-level that theoretically is the tipping point between GDP rising and falling on a month-to-month basis. Purchasing managers are asked to report whether output, orders and employment are higher or lower than in the previous month. But we know from past experience that the PMI acts like a sentiment indicator, not a pure gauge of activity. 

 ING’s James Smith added:

PMIs are constructed by asking respondents whether they are seeing conditions improve or deteriorate – and unsurprisingly in June a much greater share of firms reported things getting better. However this improvement comes off a very low (in some cases, zero) base, and it also doesn’t tell us anything about the magnitude of the rebound.

We’d therefore treat these figures with some caution, and in reality we think the size of the economy is still well down on its pre-virus size. Judging by the Google Mobility data, which has thus far proven to be one of the better proxies for activity, travel to places of economic significance is still down by around 40pc. 

09:16 AM

Job support costs pass £30bn

A notable milestone in today’s jobs figures: the total cost of the Government’s two schemes for employment and income support has passed £30bn.

Although claims on the Self-Employment Income Support Scheme have barely shifted, the number of furloughed workers edged up slightly, to 9.2m.

09:09 AM

UK PMI reaction: Recovery likely stronger than indicated

The nature of PMIs makes them “tricky to interpret at the moment” says Capital Economics’ Thomas Pugh, in response to this morning’s UK figures. He explains:

Taken literally the fact that the flash composite PMI remained below the no-change level of 50 in June suggests that activity fell further as it should compare activity to the previous month. But many respondents appear to be comparing activity in June to its normal level. So the rise in the composite PMI suggests that activity continued to recover in June, but that it is still well below normal.

Bloomberg Intelligence’s Dan Hanson added:

The UK composite PMI took another big step up in June, although it remains at a level consistent with the economy contracting. With the lockdown easing further this month, sentiment appears to be distorting the signal from the survey. We expect the official data to show output rose by about 6% in June as the government continued to lift containment measures.

This tweet neatly sums up the broad reaction from PMI-watchers this morning:

09:00 AM

Total cost of Government Covid-19 support passes £70bn

The total cost of the Government’s various schemes  to support businesses and individuals passed £70bn as of Sunday, according to the latest data released by the Treasury.

Here’s the breakdown:

Total covid-19 support costs 21 June

As ever, you can see the number in a cutesy, emoji-heavy format via the Treasury’s twitter:

08:53 AM

Reaction: A bounceback has begun to emerge

Responding to today’s UK PMI data, Duncan Brock – group director of the Chartered Institute of Procurement, which helped gather the data – said:

At the end of the second quarter we saw some uplift in the UK private sector as lockdown eased, businesses started opening up and activity increased from the crippling lows of the last few months.

Though the index still remained below the no-change mark in June, its rise since May was a survey record, creating another signal that some bounceback has started to emerge following April’s historic lows. This is just a beginning however as business spending remains flat and supply chains stutter into action…

…In general, this is good news for the UK economy, but in terms of any significant recovery, 2020 is likely to be a write-off. The following year may see some more stability and real growth as the pandemic’s effects continue to ripple through the remainder of 2020.

08:51 AM

PMIs compared

Here’s how today’s composite PMI readings compare:

08:38 AM

Key points: UK

Here’s IHS Markit on those figures:

June data indicated a vastly improved overall picture across the UK private sector, with the downturn in total business activity continuing to steady after the record rate of decline seen at the height of the lockdown during April. Another drop in service sector activity contrasted with a return to production growth among manufacturing companies in June. 

Some key points:

  • The composite PMI rise since May (+17.6 points) was the largest since the start of the series in January 1998
  • Survey respondents mainly noted that the easing of restrictions related to Covid-19 had a favourable impact on economic activity
  • There were also widespread reports that underlying demand remained very subdued and cutbacks to client spending had acted as continued drag on overall business activity
  • Concerns about the likely speed Comment of recovery in customer demand also weighed on employment numbers during June, with the latest survey indicating another rapid, albeit slower, drop in total staffing levels
  • UK private sector firms indicated a squeeze on margins during June, with subdued demand leading to widespread price discounting despite a rebound in average cost burdens

IHS Markit’s Chris Williamson said:

June’s PMI data add to signs that the economy looks likely return to growth in the third quarter, especially given the further planned easing of the lockdown from 4th July. June saw a record rise in the PMI for a second successive month, confirming that the economy is moving closer to stabilising after the worst of the immediate economic impact from the COVID-19 pandemic was felt back in April.

However, while confidence is rising that the economy will soon return to growth as the lockdown continues to ease, the longer term recovery prospects remain highly uncertain.

08:33 AM

UK manufacturing return to growth

Just in: the UK PMI figures are here, and have beaten expectations. The manufacturing sector has return to the slightest of growth, while the pace of decline in service has slowed substantially. Stepping back, the figures are still pretty dire, but they show signs of a recovery.

Here are the readings:

  • Services: 47
  • Manufacturing: 50.1
  • Composite (a weighted balance of the two): 47.6

More follows… 

08:27 AM

UK PMIs: What economist expect

Here are the consensus estimates for the UK PMI readings, per Bloomberg polling:

  • Services: 40
  • Manufacturing: 45
  • Composite (a weighted balance of the two): 41.2

We’ve seen beats across the board this morning, however, so it’s pretty likely that the actual numbers should come in higher.

Plus, there’s the question of how activity could possibly be dipping with so much reopening:

08:23 AM

Pound rises ahead of UK PMIs

With just a few minutes to go until we get the latest PMI readings for the UK, the pound is pushing higher against the dollar:

08:15 AM

Former Wirecard boss arrested

Just in: former Wirecard boss Markus Braun, who stepped down from the stricken company earlier this week, has been arrested. Munich prosecutors said Mr Braun turned himself in after a warrant was issued for his arrest. 

The prosecutors are charging him with “possible cooperation with offenders of sales manipulation to make the company appear more attractive to investors and clients”, Bloomberg reports.

08:07 AM

Key points: Eurozone

IHS Markit on those figures:

The eurozone economic downturn eased markedly for a second successive month in June as lockdowns to prevent the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak were further relaxed, according to provisional PMI survey data. The month also saw a continued strong improvement in business expectations for the year ahead.

Here are some key points:

  • The 15.6-point composite gauge rise was by far the largest in the survey history with the exception of May’s record increase
  • The ongoing downturn in output was linked to a fourth consecutive monthly deterioration of inflows of new business
  • Many other companies reported weakened demand as business and consumer customers remained cautious with respect to spending
  • Jobs were cut on balance for a fourth successive month in June as firms continued to worry about the lack of demand
  • Average prices charged for goods and services meanwhile fell for a fourth month running as firms once again reported widespread discounting to boost sales

IHS Markit’s Chris Williamson said:

The flash eurozone PMI indicated another substantial easing of the region’s downturn in June. Output and demand are still falling but no longer collapsing. While second quarter GDP is still likely to have dropped at an unprecedented rate, the rise in the PMI adds to expectations that the lifting of lockdown restrictions will help bring the downturn to an end as we head into the summer.

France has even staged a tentative return to growth, albeit having suffered a steeper decline at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic than Germany. Germany and the rest of the euro area meanwhile saw welcome moderations in rates of decline.

08:03 AM

Eurozone activity continue to fall

 The Eurozone flash PMI figures are in – here are the readings (where >50 indicates growth):

  • Services: 47.3
  • Manufacturing: 46.9
  • Composite (a weighted balance of the two): 47.5

All of those are better than expected, but they indicate a continued contraction in activity.

07:55 AM

Rightmove unable to provide guidance for coming year

Property portal Rightmove says it is unable to provide guidance for the coming year despite a rebound in momentum since the housing market reopened in early May.

The group said it has seen “strong” demand over the past five weeks, but said it is “too early to assess” how that will translate into its trading performance.

The group offered agency and new homes customers a 75pc discount of fees between April and July, with further discounts continuing as late as September. It said the further discounts would cost £17m–£20m, on top of the £65m–£75m impact of the reductions from April to July.

Peter Brooks-Johnson, its chief executive, said:

In these unprecedented times, I continue to be impressed by the ingenuity of our customers to continue operating in difficult circumstances and I thank them for the wealth of ideas which have inspired our recent innovations. I’m encouraged by the strong bounce back in home hunter demand since 13 May as England starts to move again and we look forward to welcoming our Scottish and Welsh customers back to the market.

Peel Hunt’s Malcolm Morgan said:

Although there are encouraging indications for levels of activity in the market, the lead times to completion continue to place a stain on agents’ cash flow. Membership numbers have fallen, but not out of line with expectation.

07:48 AM

PMIs: Snap reaction

07:43 AM

An important note

While looking at today’s MI figures, it’s worth remembering the crucial point: a reading of 50 does not indicate a return to ‘normality’ – the figures only indicate a month-on-month change.

So while it’s remarkable that French business activity has returned to growth, output (as indicated by the PMI readings) is likely to only marginally higher than the low levels reached in May.

07:37 AM

Key points: Germany

IHS Markit again:

Latest data showed business activity edging closer to stabilisation, down to the smallest extent by far since start of the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) outbreak in March. Results at the sector level showed identical rates of decline in services business activity and manufacturing production. 

Here are some key points:

  • There were reports of coronavirus-related uncertainty continuing to weigh on demand and leading to contract postponements or cancellations
  • Firms remained in retrenchment mode, reducing payroll numbers for the fourth month in a row
  • Latest data pointed to ongoing price discounting across Germany’s private sector
  • Business expectations turned positive for the first time in four months

 IHS Markit’s Phil Smith said:

June’s flash survey shows the PMI rebounding further from April’s low point and moving to its highest since before the start of the coronavirus outbreak, amid increasing signs of life across the German economy.

However, while the loosening of lockdown restrictions has had a positive effect on some parts of the economy, the PMI’s latest reading is still within contraction territory, which shows this is likely to be a protracted recovery as coronavirus-related disruption and uncertainty continue to weigh on demand.

07:33 AM

German business activity continues to fall

Well, two surprises might have been too much. German private sector activity to fall in June according to its flash PMI readings.

Activity dropped across all sectors, albeit at a slightly slower pace than expected. Here are the readings (where a score about 50 indicates growth):

  • Services: 45.8
  • Manufacturing: 44.6
  • Composite (a weighted balance of the two): 45.8

07:23 AM

Key points: France

More on those French PMI figures. IHS Markit, which gathered the data, said:

Private sector activity in France rose for the first time in four months during June as restrictions related to dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic continued to be lifted.

Output growth was recorded in both the manufacturing and service sectors, with the former posting its quickest rise in production since February 2018. Both readings were in stark contrast to the sharp declines registered over the past three months.

Here are some key points:

  • Demand conditions remained subdued in June, with new orders continuing to decline
  • The trend for international demand mirrored that in the domestic market, with new export business falling further at the end of the second quarter
  • Private sector firms continued to cut back on staff numbers
  • Outstanding business at French private sector firms fell for the fourth month in a row
  • Sentiment towards the 12- month business outlook moved into positive territory for the first time since February

IHS Markit’s Eliot Kerr said:

The latest PMI data suggests that France is finally entering a period of recovery as we move past the peak of the coronavirus crisis. The further loosening of restrictions has allowed some semblance of normality to resume, with many businesses and workers returning to work, particularly in the manufacturing sector.

Barring any large scale second outbreak, demand should also follow activity into expansion territory, as confidence continues to recover. Given ongoing cross-border restrictions in many countries around the world, this will most likely be driven by the domestic market in the short-run, with international demand taking a little longer to recover.

07:18 AM

French private sector returns to growth

Just in: France’s private sector returned to growth in June, according to ‘flash’ purchasing managers’ index data from IHS Markit.

The rise, which defies expectations of a continued contraction, spread across manufacturing and services. here are the readings (where a score about 50 indicates growth):

  • Services: 50.3
  • Manufacturing: 52.1
  • Composite (a weighted balance of the two): 51.3

07:13 AM

European markets rise

As expected, European stock markets have risen at the open: 

Bloomberg TV – Bloomberg TV

07:08 AM

Supermarket spending habits still ‘a world away’ from expectations

Britons’ spending habits are edging back towards normality, but remain massively altered by the current pandemic, according to the latest grocery sales data from Kantar.

It found take-home grocery sales jumped 13.7pc year-on-year in the past 12 weeks, driven by an acceleration in online sales that has helped Ocado grab its biggest-ever slice of the market at 1.3pc.

Online grocery sales jumped 91pc over the past four weeks, meaning about one in five British households bought over the internet during the month to mid-June.

Kantar’s Fraser McKevitt said:

Despite the jump, grocers are still navigating a steep drop in the amount of food and drink bought on the go, which was down by a third in early June.  These numbers are not covered in today’s take-home sales data, but were worth £347 million to grocers in June last year and so represent a considerable shortfall.

The research highlighted safety as a continuing concern, with only 54pc of respondents saying they felt safe while visiting a supermarket or convenience store.

Here’s the breakdown by brand:

06:59 AM

St James’s Place notes lower inflows, but markets buoy FuM

FTSE 100 wealth manager St James’s Place reported net inflows of £670m during May, down from £730m in the same month a year before.

However, its funds under management continued to rise, buoyed by a strong recovery across global equity markets. FuM stood at £112.6bn at the end of last month.

Andrew Croft, its chief executive, said:

We remain encouraged by the inflows we are continuing to experience and expect June gross inflows to be similar to May, though the short to medium-term impact of Covid-19 and economic volatility on our flows remains uncertain.

06:51 AM

Directorate moves: Diploma and Tedbaker

  • Technical products producer Diploma has announced Barbara Gibbes will be its new chief financial officer. Ms Gibbes will replace Nigel Lingwood, who will continue to facilitate a handover until he steps down at the end of September.
  • Retailer Ted Baker says incoming non-executive chair John Barton will join the company and be appointed to its board from July 1st. Sharon Baylay will remain as acting chair until then.

06:45 AM

Intu prepares for administration

Embattled shopping centre owner Intu has appointed KPMG to make a “contingency plan” for administration as it warned it may have to close some sites.

My colleague Simon Foy reports:

The Trafford centre owner is in discussion with its creditors about a standstill on loan repayments, adding that some stakeholders want a standstill of less than 18 months and it is not expected that the duration will exceed 15 months.

“This all remains subject to further negotiations, with no certainty as to whether Intu will achieve a standstill, or on what terms or for what duration,” the company said.

“Notwithstanding the progress made with lenders, Intu has also appointed KPMG to contingency plan for administration.

“In the event that Intu properties plc is unable to reach a standstill, it is likely it and certain other central entities will fall into administration.”

06:13 AM

Agenda: Stocks set to rise

Good morning. European stocks are set to climb after US President Donald Trump confirmed the US-China trade deal was “fully intact”.

It came after White House aide Peter Navarro was quoted saying the trade agreement signed in January was over, sending stocks tumbling before the president’s tweet. 

Elsewhere today, we”ll get the latest ‘flash’ PMI readings, which will give a sense of how business activity has shifted this month.

5 things to start your day 

1) Bailey: Government ‘would have struggled to fund itself’ without £200bn rescue: In his most explicit comments yet on the country’s precarious position in mid-March, Mr Bailey said “serious disorder” broke out after panicking investors sold UK government bonds in a desperate hunt for cash.

2) Britons fear looming unemployment crisis: Job security worries are “at extreme levels of pessimism” and have failed to pick up amid fears of a second wave of redundancies when the furlough scheme ends, IHS Markit’s household finance index revealed.

3) World’s largest insurance firm? It could be Amazon, warns major broker: Insurance tycoon Peter Cullum says that computers could put 80pc of underwriters out of a job unless industry ends ‘data complacency’

4) Airports and business chiefs demand Johnson ends blanket quarantine: In an open letter to the Prime Minister, the Airport Operators Association (AOA) and British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) called for Mr Johnson to set a date when so-called air bridges will be introduced.

5) Plans to require pubs to register visitors before they are allowed in would harm people’s liberties and pile further pressure on the sector, the boss of Marston’s has warned. Ralph Findlay, chief executive of the 1,400 site pub chain, said the measures would be “impractical”.

What happened overnight 

Asian shares see-sawed in a wild ride on Tuesday after confusing statements from the White House over the US-China trade deal, with President Donald Trump later tweeting that the pact was “fully intact”.

Mr Trump’s tweet bolstered market sentiment, helping e-minis for the S&P 500 swing back to positive territory.  Asian shares were quick to turn around too, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside of Japan up 0.7pc.

Risk sentiment had taken a knock early in the Asian day after White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the trade deal with China was “over”.

The comment caused a knee-jerk sell-off in equities markets, although sentiment turned around quickly after a statement from Mr Navarro that his comment had been taken out of context.

Mr Trump soothed nerves with his tweet and, in response, China’s blue-chip index regained its losses to be last up 0.3pc while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed 0.7pc. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.8pc.

Coming up today

Interim results: IHS Markit, Shoe Zone, St James’s Place

Full-year: Cranswick, Naked Wines, Speedy Hire

Economics: Flash PMIs (UK, eurozone, US)

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