Cathay International Holdings Limited (LON:CTI) has rebounded strongly over the last week, with the share price soaring 100%. But will that repair the damage for the weary investors who have owned this stock as it declined over half a decade? Probably not. In fact, the share price has tumbled down a mountain to land 86% lower after that period. So we don’t gain too much confidence from the recent recovery. The fundamental business performance will ultimately determine if the turnaround can be sustained.
We really feel for shareholders in this scenario. It’s a good reminder of the importance of diversification, and it’s worth keeping in mind there’s more to life than money, anyway.
View our latest analysis for Cathay International Holdings
Given that Cathay International Holdings didn’t make a profit in the last twelve months, we’ll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn’t make profits, we’d generally expect to see good revenue growth. That’s because it’s hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.
Over half a decade Cathay International Holdings reduced its trailing twelve month revenue by 12% for each year. That’s definitely a weaker result than most pre-profit companies report. So it’s not that strange that the share price dropped 32% per year in that period. We don’t think this is a particularly promising picture. Ironically, that behavior could create an opportunity for the contrarian investor – but only if there are good reasons to predict a brighter future.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.
A Different Perspective
While the broader market lost about 17% in the twelve months, Cathay International Holdings shareholders did even worse, losing 60%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there’s a good opportunity. Unfortunately, last year’s performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 32% over the last half decade. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should “buy when there is blood on the streets”, but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We’ve spotted 4 warning signs for Cathay International Holdings you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit unpleasant.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.
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