Rising home values can quickly transition a reasonable housing market into the type of real estate monster that has consumed places like the San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles and New York. While the idea of affordable housing in an urban center isn’t implausible for plenty of Americans living in the Midwest and South, that’s also rapidly changing in some areas.
GOBankingRates conducted a study to determine which major U.S. cities are on track to lose their label of affordability. After taking 300 of the biggest cities in the U.S., the study used Zillow’s one-year forecast to project the growth in home values in each city over the next decade. Then, it identified the places where that change would take the average home value from under the national median — which currently sits at $231,000 and is growing by 2.8% each year — to over the median at some point in the next 10 years.
Granted, this approach comes with some caveats. Projecting a decade into the future based on a single year’s growth rate could ultimately paint an unfair picture in markets where the current rate is an anomaly. Additionally, Zillow’s estimated home values don’t necessarily reflect the list prices or sale prices in each market.
check out other, more affordable real estate markets instead.” data-reactid=”24″>Still, identifying the areas that are outpacing the national average for growth can help shed light on the cities where you should buy a home sooner rather than later. If you end up living in one of these cities 10 years down the line, you might want to check out other, more affordable real estate markets instead.
Pueblo, Colorado
- 2019 home value: $177,100
- One-year projected growth rate: 6.04%
Dating back to Fort Pueblo, which was founded in 1842, this Colorado city of just over 100,000 people is located east of the Great Sand Dunes National Park and Preserve.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2028
- Projected home value: $300,235.84
- U.S. median projected home value: $296,695.10
- Difference in value: $3,540.74
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Summerville, South Carolina
- 2019 home value: $223,700
- One-year projected growth rate: 3.29%
With just under 45,000 residents, Summerville is situated to the northwest of Charleston. For anyone who loves nature, the Francis Marion National Forest — named for the famed Revolutionary War guerrilla fighter dubbed “the Swamp Fox” — is located next door on the Atlantic coast.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2027
- Projected home value: $289,715.59
- U.S. median projected home value: $288,557.77
- Difference in value: $1,157.82
Arlington, Texas
- 2019 home value: $212,300
- One-year projected growth rate: 4.22%
Situated between Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas, Arlington is home to AT&T Stadium and Globe Life Park, which host the NFL’s Dallas Cowboys and the MLB’s Texas Rangers, respectively.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2026
- Projected home value: $283,446.59
- U.S. median projected home value: $280,643.62
- Difference in value: $2,802.97
Concord, North Carolina
- 2019 home value: $208,500
- One-year projected growth rate: 5.01%
Just under 80,000 people reside in Concord, which is located immediately outside of Charlotte, North Carolina. With a median income of over $60,000, Concord residents earn slightly more than the national average.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2024
- Projected home value: $266,211.28
- U.S. median projected home value: $265,460.54
- Difference in value: $750.74
Dallas, Texas
- 2019 home value: $213,400
- One-year projected growth rate: 4.54%
Much like Arlington, its smaller neighbor to the west, the second-largest city in the Lone Star State is seeing home values rise quickly. Currently, the median home value in Dallas falls $17,600 below the national average.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2024
- Projected home value: $266,476.06
- U.S. median projected home value: $265,460.54
- Difference in value: $1,015.52
Bloomington, Indiana
- 2019 home value: $201,700
- One-year projected growth rate: 5.91%
Home to Indiana University, this college town has just 33,172 permanent residents — meaning that the town’s full-time residents are outnumbered by the nearby university’s students by roughly 10,000.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2024
- Projected home value: $268,715.66
- U.S. median projected home value: $265,460.54
- Difference in value: $3,255.12
Clearwater, Florida
- 2019 home value: $217,700
- One-year projected growth rate: 4.34%
Clearwater sits north of St. Petersburg and west of Tampa on Florida’s Gulf Coast. The city’s roughly 45,000 residents can enjoy the sun and surf as well as their proximity to two larger cities and all of the associated amenities.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2024
- Projected home value: $269,229.44
- U.S. median projected home value: $265,460.54
- Difference in value: $3,768.90
Kissimmee, Florida
- 2019 home value: $221,300
- One-year projected growth rate: 3.95%
Kissimmee is home to under 40,000 Floridians and presents a very different appeal from that of Clearwater. Since Kissimmee sits just south of Orlando, residents can likely expect the local economy to benefit from Disney World.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2023
- Projected home value: $258,388.64
- U.S. median projected home value: $258,179.87
- Difference in value: $208.77
Grand Prairie, Texas
- 2019 home value: $214,900
- One-year projected growth rate: 5.2%
The Dallas-Fort Worth area is clearly seeing home prices on the rise. Grand Prairie is Arlington’s immediate neighbor to the east with just under 40,000 residents.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2023
- Projected home value: $263,209.76
- U.S. median projected home value: $258,179.87
- Difference in value: $5,029.89
Rochester, Minnesota
- 2019 home value: $228,500
- One-year projected growth rate: 3.43%
Located to the southeast of the Twin Cities, Rochester has just under 40,000 residents. However, the town has a major claim to fame: It’s home to the legendary Mayo Clinic.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2021
- Projected home value: $244,466.11
- U.S. median projected home value: $244,212.10
- Difference in value: $254.01
Lawrenceville, Georgia
- 2019 home value: $225,100
- One-year projected growth rate: 4.37%
With a population approaching 45,000, this Atlanta suburb is home to the Gwinnett County Airport. Lawrenceville’s current median home value sits $5,900 below the national average.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2021
- Projected home value: $245,205.51
- U.S. median projected home value: $244,212.10
- Difference in value: $993.41
Port St. Lucie, Florida
- 2019 home value: $227,400
- One-year projected growth rate: 4.06%
Up Florida’s Atlantic coast from Miami and West Palm Beach, Port St. Lucie is home to just under 50,000 residents. Between the ocean and nearby Lake Okeechobee, those spiking home values could be a result of water sports fans flocking to this affordable option for freshwater and saltwater activities alike.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2021
- Projected home value: $246,261.12
- U.S. median projected home value: $244,212.10
- Difference in value: $2,049.02
Irving, Texas
- 2019 home value: $223,700
- One-year projected growth rate: 4.96%
Irving is one of four Texas cities that are on their way to losing affordability. It has a population of just under 60,000 and sits directly adjacent to the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, completing the triangle of cities clustered between Fort Worth and Dallas with rapidly rising home values.
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When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2021
- Projected home value: $246,457
- U.S. median projected home value: $244,212.10
- Difference in value: $2,244.90
St. Petersburg, Florida
- 2019 home value: $226,800
- One-year projected growth rate: 5.09%
Sitting just south of Clearwater, St. Petersburg offers warm weather and a great location on Florida’s Gulf Coast and the Tampa Bay. It has a population of over 50,000 residents.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2020
- Projected home value: $238,336.99
- U.S. median projected home value: $237,514.20
- Difference in value: $822.79
Spokane, Washington
- 2019 home value: $221,600
- One-year projected growth rate: 7.57%
This Washington city represents one of the few places in the study that are outside of the South. It’s remote relative to the other cities on the list — Spokane, with a population of about 45,000, is the only featured city near the Pacific coast.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2020
- Projected home value: $238,380.21
- U.S. median projected home value: $237,514.20
- Difference in value: $866.01
Charlotte, North Carolina
- 2019 home value: $230,300
- One-year projected growth rate: 4.12%
Joining Concord, Charlotte is also seeing housing prices on the rise. However, this North Carolina city has a lot less time than its suburb before becoming unaffordable. Current projections show that Charlotte will become more expensive than the national median as soon as 2020.
When It Will Become Too Expensive
- Year: 2020
- Projected home value: $239,780.42
- U.S. median projected home value: $237,514.20
- Difference in value: $2,266.22
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