As you might know, John B. Sanfilippo & Son, Inc. (NASDAQ:JBSS) recently reported its quarterly numbers. It looks like a credible result overall – although revenues of US$212m were what the analyst expected, John B. Sanfilippo & Son surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$1.17 per share, an impressive 77% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analyst has updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there’s been a strong change in the company’s prospects, or if it’s business as usual. We’ve gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analyst has changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for John B. Sanfilippo & Son
NasdaqGS:JBSS Past and Future Earnings May 4th 2020
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from John B. Sanfilippo & Son’s one analyst is for revenues of US$938.9m in 2021, which would reflect an okay 5.2% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 15% to US$4.07 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analyst had been modelling revenues of US$940.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.62 in 2021. There was no real change to the revenue estimates, but the analyst does seem more bullish on earnings, given the solid gain to earnings per share expectations following these results.
The consensus price target rose 6.4% to US$100.00, suggesting that higher earnings estimates flow through to the stock’s valuation as well.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the John B. Sanfilippo & Son’s past performance and to peers in the same industry. One thing stands out from these estimates, which is that John B. Sanfilippo & Son is forecast to grow faster in the future than it has in the past, with revenues expected to grow 5.2%. If achieved, this would be a much better result than the 0.9% annual decline over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 2.1% per year. Not only are John B. Sanfilippo & Son’s revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analyst is also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around John B. Sanfilippo & Son’s earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analyst believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.
With that in mind, we wouldn’t be too quick to come to a conclusion on John B. Sanfilippo & Son. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year’s profits. We have analyst estimates for John B. Sanfilippo & Son going out as far as 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Plus, you should also learn about the 2 warning signs we’ve spotted with John B. Sanfilippo & Son (including 1 which is a bit unpleasant) .
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